Fear, Forecasts, and the Long View
- December 11, 2025
- by Dennis McNamara
“Human innovation is the strongest long-term trend.” - Raad Ghantous
If you spend even a few minutes listening to financial commentary, you’ll find no shortage of bold predictions about impending recession, depression, or outright societal collapse.
Fear sells.
It always has.
Media outlets, certain financial advisors, politicians, and self-appointed experts all benefit from keeping us on edge. The problem is that even when we try to tune it out, the noise still seeps in.
When we fixate on the moment-to-moment headlines, we lose sight of the bigger picture. And that’s where fear does its real damage.
The Stats That Shook Investors
In recent years, we’ve lived through some truly jarring numbers:
- April 2020: Unemployment hit 14.8%, the highest level since records began in 1948.
- June 2022: Inflation reached 9.1%, a 41-year high.
- October 2023: Mortgage rates climbed to 7.9%, the peak since 2000.
Any one of these could spark anxiety.
But all three within three years?
It felt like the sky had to be falling.
And then…
The Snapshot Today
- U.S. unemployment: ~ 4.4% (recent 2025 data from national labor reports). Trading Economics+1
- U.S. inflation (recent annual rate): ~ 3.0% (as of September 2025) Trading Economics+1
- 30-year fixed mortgage rates: around 6.2–6.3% (as of late 2025) Trading Economics+2Fortune+2
This isn’t about seeing the world through rose-colored glasses.
It’s about recognizing that reacting out of fear often does more harm than the event itself.
Timing the Market: The Trap
Moving to cash during market volatility can feel smart. Especially if you catch the dip before it falls.
But then what?
- When do you get back in?
- Do you reinvest all at once?
- How much growth did you miss while waiting for the “perfect” moment?
Market timing is a strategy built on flawless prediction which means it’s a strategy built on fantasy.
Anticipation: A Tool for Fear Management
Anticipating discomfort reduces its power.
Just like knowing someone is about to jump out from behind the curtain makes the scare less intense, anticipating uncertainty prepares us to navigate it.
That’s why naming the unanswerable questions is useful. It helps inoculate against fear-driven reactions.
The Big Questions No One Can Answer
These unknowns will dominate headlines in the months ahead:
- When will the Fed cut rates?
- How will China’s slowdown influence global markets?
- Will rising federal debt matter and when?
- Will housing prices keep climbing?
- Will AI and robotics disrupt employment?
- Will remote work push more jobs offshore?
- How will geopolitical tensions ripple through markets?
- How severe will climate-related disruptions become?
- How will the election impact the economy?
- What are the odds of another pandemic?
- Will consumer debt levels drag down growth?
- Could cyberattacks destabilize critical systems?
- And the favorite client question:
“Is the U.S. heading toward post-apocalyptic bunker territory?”
No one knows. And pretending to know is just another form of noise.
The Other Side of the Story: Human Innovation
While fear gets the headlines, innovation builds the future.
Across every major sector, breakthroughs are accelerating:
- Precision agriculture
- Vertical farming
- Desalination and water tech
- Gene editing
- Personalized medicine
- Vaccine advancements
- Carbon capture
- Quantum computing
- Ethical AI
- Space-based solar
- Asteroid mining
History has shown this again and again:
When faced with major challenges, humans innovate.
That’s the real long-term trend.
The Raad Life: 5 Takeaways
1. Fear is loud but rarely accurate.
Most doomsday predictions evaporate when viewed with a wider lens. Zoom out before reacting.
2. Emotional discipline outperforms market timing.
Staying invested beats guessing the perfect moment to jump in or out.
3. Uncertainty is normal and anticipatable.
Naming the unknowns reduces their power and keeps fear from driving financial decisions.
4. Human innovation is the strongest long-term trend.
Across health, energy, and technology, progress outpaces pessimism over time.
5. Steadiness is a strategy.
Hold your plan, protect your peace, and stay aligned with long-term goals not short-term noise.
